Physical coffee market tries to sustain recent gain

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Internal physical prices keep rising. The coffee market finds support from a high dollar and internal selling resistance to some descriptions. The reaction on ICE, which is recovering the 100-cent level, also favored the price improvement. This movement is clearer for the best coffees, mainly the finest cups, big screens and cherry.

After overcoming the crop bottleneck, the physical market finds room for some reaction. In a year of smaller crop and lower quality, it is natural that internal prices detach from external reference. Hard cup from Minas Gerais with 15% of defects is trading at BRL 435 per bag in early October. The market still tries to converge towards the price practiced in the same period last year, but remains far from the average for the period. The seasonal indication remains positive for the coming few months.

Cerrado de Minas fine cup keeps a good distance from hard cup, following the appreciation movement of the best cups, especially fine coffee and peeled cherry. Fine coffee from Cerrado is indicated in early October from BRL 445 to 450 per bag, converging towards the price practiced at the same time last year and far from the average for the period.

Arabica Rio has reacted but is still unable to detach from the external reality. Increased supply of weaker coffees and competition with cheaper conillon continue to limit the advance of the physical price of this description. Thus, Rio cup with 20% of defects in Zona da Mata de Minas is pegged at BRL 310 to 315 per bag in early October. Despite the improvement compared to September, it remains far from the price practiced at the same time last year and well below the 5-year average (around BRL 429).

Conillon sustains good earnings in early October. External high and firm dollar favor the high of this coffee. Even so, conillon  type 7 is around BRL 292 a bag in Vitória, Espírito Santo, in early October, far away from the price practiced at the same time last year and also below the 5-year average.