While climate and costs become profile drivers of the planting of this 2019/20 crop, two indications deserve a continued highlight next year. The first is the high flow of export shipments, now with October signaling 4.5 million tons. This leads us to a commitment of 30 million tons between February and November. With the last quarter of the business year remaining for shipments, this must be a key indicator for carryover stocks for 2020. Later, a more aggressive demand in view of the increased housing in the meat sector and the start of operation of new corn ethanol mills. Record consumption in 2020, close to 75 million tons, justifies some concern over domestic supply in the first half of the year.
Brazil’s 2018/19 crop was revised to 107.3 million tons, slightly lower than the previous forecast. Brazilian domestic demand is adjusting to 70 million tons this business year, from February 19 to January 20. The rebuilding of chicken housing and the planned demand for ethanol centralize this higher domestic demand by approximately 4.7 million tons compared to 2018. This means that Brazil in 2019 has a surplus of 49 million tons when adding the 2018 carryover stocks of 12 million tons.