Brazil’s soybean exports are expected to total 72.5 million tons in 2020, up 4% from the 2019 volume, projected at 70 million tons. The forecast is part of the Brazilian supply and demand survey, released by SAFRAS & Mercado last Monday (14). In the July estimates, the figures were 77 and 72.1 million respectively.
The probable end of the trade war must impact Brazilian exports in the new season and result in a strong recovery of the country’s soybean stocks. The crush must continue to grow in the face of strong demand for meat exports and biodiesel manufacturing.
SAFRAS indicates projects a crush of 43.8 million tons in 2020 and of 43.5 million tons in 2019, representing a 1% increase between one season and another.
Compared to the 2020 season, total soybean supply is to increase by 8% to 129.408 million tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 119.5 million tons, 2% higher. As a result, final stocks must rise 183% from 3.504 to 9.908 million tons.
SAFRAS estimates a production of soymeal of 33.33 million tons, an increase of 1%. Exports are expected to fall 3% to 15.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17.3 million, up 2%. Stocks are expected to rise 34% to 2.1 million tons.
Soyoil production must reach 8.7 million tons. Brazil will likely export 700,000 tons, down 24% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 7.9 to 8.05 million tons. The forecast is for a 23% decrease in stocks to 83,000 tons.