The 2019 US crop began with problems during the planting period. The extreme, early cold last week brought widespread frost and snow on the north side of the Midwest. The market always has difficulty in pricing this type of problem, since for corn the practical effect can only be seen through the specific weight of the grain, that is, with the progress of the harvest.
The harvest of the difficult 2019 corn season in the United States was 22% complete last week. This means that nearly 78% of crops received the impact of the strong cold front that reached the country and the Midwest last week, with snow in the states on the border with Canada and frost up to the Mississippi Delta. Consequently, the potential grain weight loss will depend on the moisture level of crops.
The faster the harvest this week, the lower the risk of greater potential losses from the intense cold front by the end of the month. Therefore, until January, when the USDA concludes this season’s numbers, it seems that productivity may still fall. On the other hand, it is still surprising that the USDA estimates a cut by 8 million tons in the feedstuff segment this business year. This cut has prevented stocks from looking lower and prices from being sustained at USD 4.00/bushel.