Post-harvest highs of the second corn crop in Brazil are not unusual. They depend largely on the attitude of growers and, in particular, on the flow of exports. Good flow of shipments generates a healthy internal environment for price recovery. Weak export movement generates accumulation of stocks and pressure on prices at some point in commercialization. This year’s record shipment by Brazil is not new to the market. Everyone is watching the significant volumes exported though the ports. In recent days, however, the weather has worsened, and retention by growers has created an environment conducive to strong and immediate highs. This is because, once again, it seems that the consumer sector has seen corn exports grow and not prepared itself for speculative movements.
Overall, the price situation for corn in the second half of this year could have been much faster in terms of highs and of competition between the domestic and export markets. If a greater production loss were confirmed in the United States in this 2019 crop, undoubtedly the demand for corn by importers would be much more concentrated on the Brazilian market and, in this case, with more competition and for the available product. With the US crop being smaller but not catastrophic, international prices, and so has the panic of the largest global importers.