The USDA’s November report brought few but important changes in the overall picture. The small cut in the US production reveals that new reductions may still occur until January, given that the harvest is long overdue and cold extremely intense in the Midwest. Some sharper cuts in production would be natural. Stocks are still comfortable, but there are two important points: the estimate of very discreet domestic demand in the feedstuff environment and weak exports. Numbers that may change in the next reports.
The USDA’s supply and demand update in November generally confirms previous production estimates. It is the harvesting that generally establishes the consensus between the USDA and private estimates. In 2019, however, an irregular early crop also turns out to be irregular at the end. Now average yields are being evaluated by the effective harvest, and results are emerging.
The first data of this November report are the expected productivity update. The cut from 168.4 to 167 bushels per acre will reflect the results of the first harvests held in late September and early October.