The International Coffee Organization (ICO) points to a global coffee production at 167.4 million bags in 19/20. This corresponds to an 0.9% decline from the 18/19 cycle, when 169.01 million bags were produced. The ICO’s business year goes from October through September. Arabica production must fall 2.7% to 95.68 million bags, while robusta must grow 1.5% and reach 71.72 million bags.
The smaller Brazilian crop helps pull the world coffee production downwards. In Asia/Oceania production is expected to grow, with projection of great crops in Vietnam and Indonesia. In Central America and Mexico production must slightly increase and in Africa slightly fall.
Global coffee consumption is expected to be in line with the slowdown of the world economy and grow very slowly in 19/20. The organization projects a global demand of 167.9 million bags, which corresponds to an increase of only 1.5%.
ICO data point to a global deficit of 502,000 bags in 19/20. The ICO also adjusted its previous production and consumption data, reducing the 18/19 surplus to 3.7 million bags and correcting the 17/18 season to a deficit of 2.19 million bags.