The Brazilian market continues to present a picture of tight availability, a factor that guarantees firmness for live pig prices and the main wholesale cuts. The flow of production to the foreign market is heated, driven by imports from China, being the main component in the adjustment of Brazilian availability. It is true that domestic production has grown moderately this year, but without a high flow of shipments the market would have suffered, as demand evolved shyly for much of the year, with some peaking points, such as must happen now at the holiday season. Consumption tends to advance more significantly in 2020 with the growth of economic activity in the country.
As for exports, between January and November 2019, Brazil exported 644.7 thousand tons (fresh and processed), according to data from the Foreign Trade Secretary, an increase of 12.1% compared to 575.1 thousand tons registered in the same period of 2018. Almost one third of Brazilian exports was destined for the Chinese market (210.1 thousand tons), as can be seen in the attached table. The timing is good, and China is expected to continue to make large purchases in the global market for an extended period, given the large supply gap in its market as a result of ASF. The recovery of herds and production in the Asian country must take place slowly, considering that the productive cycle can take up to two years. In addition, ASF is still present in China and its surrounding countries, with risk of new losses, which slows down the recovery of their herds.