First half of 2020 suggests firm domestic corn prices

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The price cycle of corn in the Brazilian market has been marked by the profile of planting between the summer and second season crops. The summer corn crop continues to have strong competition with soybeans and has not been able to recover in terms of planted area to balance the first half production with demand in the period. For this reason, the position of carryover stocks and the weather picture for the second corn crop become fundamental to price composition. Exports determine whether carryover stocks will be larger or smaller, to the point of helping supplies in the first half. For this reason, the second crop of Brazilian corn is decisive for the price scenario throughout the year, no doubt, but despite a better domestic demand exports remain with paramount importance for this market composition. Without corn exports ahead of 20 million, price curves will be softened. With record shipments in 2019, carryover stocks are not bad, there is product in the hands of growers which meets much of regional demand. The point is that stocks are not located in all regions, and some locality of the country may have need imports, as is the case of the Northeast. Prices in the first half of the year, therefore, will be in line with this selling decision by growers, as well as by the flow of imports.

While internal information points to worrisome public accounts, there is a positive symptom regarding the pace of economic growth for 2020 in Brazil. Expectations of expansion of 2 to 4% are extremely favorable and must decree the exit of the country from the recessionary process started in 2011 and that went through 2018.