After a good performance in 2019, slightly above expectations, Brazilian soybean shipments tend to be even better in 2020. At least that is the indication from the supply and demand report released in December by SAFRAS & Mercado. Brazil’s soybean exports must total 74 million tons in 2020, up 2% from the projected volume of 72.5 million tons for 2019.
October estimates pointed to 72.5 and 70.0 million tons respectively. The recently sealed partial agreement between the United States and China, which is beginning to end the trade war between the countries, is expected to prevent further growth of Brazilian soybean exports in 2020, with Brazil losing a share of Chinese imports to the United States. Nevertheless, the increase in tax retention in Argentina must make Brazil gain a share from the neighboring country in the export market, partially offsetting the loss to the United States.
SAFRAS puts the crush at 44.1 million tons in 2020 and at 43 million tons in 2019, accounting for a 3% increase between one season and another.
Compared to the 2020 season, total soybean supply is expected to rise by 6% to 127.09 million tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 121.35 million tons, up 2%. As a result, final stocks will likely rise 285%, from 1.494 to 5.749 million tons.
SAFRAS estimates soymeal production at 33.56 million tons, 2% higher. Exports are expected to fall 1% to 15.8 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 17 million, up 4%. Stocks must rise 43% to 2.542 million tons.
Soyoil production is to reach 8.76 million tons. Brazil must export 500 thousand tons, down 44% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is expected to rise from 7.75 to 8.4 million tons. The forecast is for a 46% decline in stocks to 130 thousand tons.