The USDA’s report did not change the US production of 19/20, cutting only stocks, now projected at 11.57 million tons. The market was expecting 12.19 million tons. The drop in stocks is justified by growth in exports. Despite the surprise, little effect on prices.
USDA also increased the 19/20 world soybean production to 339.40 million tons. Both the US and Argentine production figures remained unchanged at 96.84 and 53 million tons respectively, but the Brazilian was lifted to 125 million tons, confirming a record.
The report also projected growth in global exports, driven by higher imports from China (88 million). Even so, global stocks were revised upwards and must reach 98.86 million tons. Albeit below 18/19 (111.22 tons), there is still a considerable surplus, which must keep pressuring the CBOT and inhibiting a more significant upward movement.