Brazilian soybean shipments in 2020 must exceed the February expectations. The strong demand from China, especially in the first half, must guarantee the good pace of national exports.
Brazilian soybean exports will likely total 73 million tons in 2020, down 1% from the volume of 2019, projected at 74.038 million tons. The forecast is part of the April update for the supply and demand scenario of the Brazilian soybean complex, released by SAFRAS & Mercado.
In February, the estimate for 2020 was 70 million tons. The increase in the projection reflects the Chinese demand, above normal in the first half of the year. Although a heated demand was expected, the volumes registered until April exceeded expectations, supporting the increase in the estimate.
Even so, shipments are not expected to exceed last year’s exports, due to the trend of a strong shift of Chinese demand to US ports in the second half of 2020, to meet the trade agreement closed at the end of last year. This fact deserves extra attention for the second half.
SAFRAS indicates the crush at 44.1 million tons in 2020 and 43 million tons in 2019, accounting for an increase of 3% between one season and another.
As for the 2020 season, the total supply of soybeans must rise by 3% to 125.28 million tons. The total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 120.04 million tons, practically repeating the previous year. Thus, ending stocks must rise 409%, from 960 thousand to 4.888 million tons.