Chinese demand boosts Brazilian soybean exports

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Soybean exports from Brazil are expected to total 77.5 million tons in 2020, rising 5% over the volume of 2019, projected at 74.038 million tons. The forecast is part of the May report on Brazilian supply and demand, released by SAFRAS & Mercado on the 22nd.

In April, the estimate for 2020 was at 73 million tons. The increase in the projection is a direct reflection of Chinese demand, which in the first half of the year exceeded all early expectations.

SAFRAS indicates the crush at 43.5 million tons in 2020 and 43 million tons in 2019, accounting for an increase of 1% between one season and another.

As for the 2020 season, the total supply of soybeans must rise 4% to 125.819 million tons. Brazil consolidated a new record crop in 2019/20, with a production of 124.609 million tons. Total demand is projected by SAFRAS at 124.3 million tons, up 3% from the previous year. Thus, final stocks are expected to rise by 58%, from 960 thousand to 1.519 million tons.

SAFRAS estimates the soymeal production at 33.103 million tons, 1% higher. Exports are expected to fall by 1% to 16.5 million tons, while domestic consumption is projected at 16.6 million, up 1%. Stocks must remain practically unchanged at 1.192 million tons.

Soyoil production is expected to hit 8.68 million tons. Brazil must export 700 thousand tons, down 26% from the previous year. Domestic consumption is likely to rise from 7.75 to 8.1 million tons. The forecast is for a 33% decrease in stocks to 143 thousand tons.