Brazil now focuses on potential export numbers of corn

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The Brazilian second crop still has a few weeks to be fully defined, with pod filling, pollination effects in the middle of the drought, and frosts that can still occur and deteriorate quality and specific weight. However, this is already a production for 68/70 million tons that will have its final evaluation only at harvest. Regardless of a slightly higher or lower number, the Brazilian market is moving towards exports. In this environment, there are many variables present, that is, the question of liquidity, production losses, regional demand, the buyers’ stance in relation to the harvest, the producers’ acceptance or not of lower prices in these next ninety days, and so on. The key point is the export of 30 million tons, a number that determines a point of carryover stocks for 2021 and that may also define the market conditions next year.

The Brazilian corn market has four more weeks to assess such conditions of the 2020 second crop. Some sources of information seek to impose a less worrying condition for a production that already has clear losses due to the sixty-day drought in Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and São Paulo. This month’s rainfall is only preventing crop losses from increasing. However, they already exist and are irreversible. There is a risk of frost, with three possibilities until June 15 in these locations. Corn at this stage of the crop still has much moisture in the grain, some crops are still in early pod filling, and others have 40/50% of moisture and are already starting to ripen. Therefore, different effects on crops from potential frosts. Potential losses depend on the intensity of the frosts and stage of the crop. However, at all stages at this time frosts can cause production losses, be it by specific weight or paralysis of the plant’s evolution and pod filling. Therefore, ignoring frosts at this time does not reflect the reality of the crop in the middle of May.

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After this period of frosts, the assessment of the second crop will determine our export potential. The loss of quality induced by frost may even limit the volume of exports. Today the potential is 30 million tons. Note that in 2019, to reach 41 million tons, the first semester needed to export nearly 4 million tons. In 2020, shipments are only around 800 thousand tons. Well, this requires a greater export effort in the second semester.