While there is a difficult economic and political scenario in the global environment, the U.S. crop ends the month of May with the planting within a perfect window. Very different from 2019, when rains did not allow the work on the crops, 2020 signals a potentially high area and, due to the planting profile, high potential productivity. Undoubtedly, attention to the climate for the next sixty days will determine the framework for this 2020 U.S. crop. A full crop will need an equivalent high demand for 2020/21.
The U.S. 2020 crop performs quite differently from the 2019 crop. Last year, the stiffer and moister winter and an excessively rainy spring season inhibited work conditions in much of the Midwest, even preventing the closure of planting. The area lost due to excess rain approached 10 million acres, which were mostly switched to soybeans. In 2020, conditions are quite different. Despite a cold winter, moisture levels in March and the early spring were not excessively moist and generated favorable conditions for early planting.
Last week, the planting reached 88% of the expected area and must close the work by the end of May, maintaining an excellent window for potential productivity. Crop conditions were good to excellent in 70% of the area. They are not better due to the cold of early May, which brought frosts to the east of the Midwest. Normally, under such conditions, the market tends to suggest high yield potentials for the crop, a trend that USDA already showed in May by pointing to 178.50 bushels per acre, a new record.