USDA’s June report brought unexpected adjustments for soybean

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The June report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) brought some surprises, although the adjustments were small. The numbers had a bias different from the one expected by the market. The forecast for the U.S. crop remained unchanged and stocks were reduced, while the market expected increases in both numbers. Exports were also cut.

The report indicated that the U.S. soybean crop must reach 4.125 billion bushels in 2020/21, equivalent to 112.26 million tons, repeating the previous month’s estimate. The market was betting on 4.152 billion bushels (113 million tons).

Final stocks are estimated at 395 million bushels or 10.75 million tons. The market was betting on a carryover of 459 million bushels, or 12.49 million tons. In the previous report, stocks were projected at 405 million bushels (11.022 million tons).

The USDA put the crush at 2.145 billion bushels (58.38 million tons) and exports at 2.05 billion bushels (55.79 million tons). In May, the projections were 2.130 billion bushels (57.97 million tons) and 2.05 billion bushels (55.79 million tons), respectively.

U.S. production 2019/20 is estimated at 3.552 billion bushels (96.67 million tons). Final stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 585 million bushels (15.92 million tons), while the market bet on stocks of 584 million (15.89 million tons). In the previous report, the figure was 580 million (15.79 million tons). The crush is estimated at 2.140 billion (58.24 million tons), and exports at 1.65 billion bushels (44.91 million tons).

Concerning the world scenario, USDA projected a global soybean output in 2020/21 of 362.85 million tons. In May, the number was 362.76 million tons.

Final stocks are estimated at 96.34 million tons. The market expected final stocks of 100.1 million tons, against the forecast of 98.39 million tons in May.

USDA projects the U.S. production at 112.26 million tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 131 million tons. Argentina is expected to produce 53.5 million tons. The estimate for Chinese imports in 2020/21 is 96 million tons.

For 2019/20, USDA estimated production at 335.35 million tons. Final stocks are projected at 99.19 million tons, while the market was betting on 100.3 million. The Brazilian crop estimate was maintained at 124 million tons, against 123 million expected by the market.

The Argentine crop was cut from 51 to 50 million tons, while the market predicted 51 million. Chinese imports were lifted from 92 to 94 million tons.