Planting intention of corn shows effects by soybean prices on growers’ decisions

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           It has not been easy for corn to recover the summer crop acreage. The binomial soybeans in the summer with second-crop corn increases every year. Plague-induced problems bring necessary cuts to the summer planting in various areas of the Midwest and Matopiba region. This profile seems to continue for 2020/21. The aggravating factor is the extremely high price of soybeans, from both current and new crops, and the high volume of sales already made for next year. This leads growers to a summer planting with soybeans, limiting any reaction in the area planted with corn. Therefore, the already modest summer area will have a 2.9% reduction for 2021, with a consequent new increase in the second crop area. In this assessment, should the weather be normal, the 2021 crop may set a new record at 116 million tons. La Nina in the next season is the challenge for production.

           The 2019/20 crop was revised to 107.3 million tons this July. There was a cut in the projection for the 2020 second crop from 75.3 to 74 million tons. Regions of Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, central and northern Paraguay, and western São Paulo are confirming strong losses in productivity potential. Some areas registered replanting in the midst of the drought, and now we have crops at different stages of maturation and grain moisture.

           Productivity levels are also expected to vary widely, especially in replanted areas. For this reason, we cut the average productivity projections in these locations, reflecting that the drought, in the pollination stage, technically affects crops invisibly, and the results are evident only with the harvest. This productivity result will be important for the general closing of the second crop of 2020 and the market stance towards 2021.