Porto Alegre, November 3, 2020 – The update of the projections for the 20/21 Brazilian corn crop carried out this October includes the initial weather environment of this spring. The delay in the summer rain may bring some more worrying feelings ahead in relation to the 2021 second crop, however, so far it has not revealed any evident symptoms that the crop cannot be planted or there will be some area reversal.
On the contrary, there is a strong intention to plant for the next second crop, mainly due to the price factor. On the other hand, the early crops of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina suffer from the drought of this spring entrance and cut the already discreet summer crop in the region. Thus, despite the cut in the summer crop, the second crop still offsets the annual crop projected at 116.4 million tons. This implies that the great Brazilian supply will occur only from July and, until then, we have a long path of domestic supply.
We must evaluate the Brazilian crop as it is presented to the market, that is, a summer crop in the Center-South region followed by the summer harvest in Matopiba and second crop in other regions.
The moment is for the development of the summer crop in the Center-South of Brazil. In this context, we always have a very early planting in Rio Grande do Sul and western Santa Catarina. These crops are planted in August and early September. Generally, they enter the pollination and silking stages in late October and early November.
And it is at this point that summer losses are already counted as irreversible in part of the region’s plantations, many of which in the critical phase of defining production with 30 or more days without rain or below-normal occurrences. Losses are between 10 to 30% in these locations.
Last week, there were varied rains in RS and part of SC. Undoubtedly, the appearance of little later plantations improved, but this is far from guaranteeing a normal situation. If the month of November continues with the below-normal rainfall, the potential productivity cuts will be accentuated in other regions of the two southern states. The next rain is forecast for November 8 and 9, with the summer crop delayed in the region.
Agência SAFRAS Latam
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