USDA brings no negative adjustments to US output and stocks of soybean


The USDA’s November report left the US soybean crop unchanged from October figures. The market was betting on reduction. Stocks were increased, while projections were pointing to decrease.

2019/20 production is estimated at 3.550 billion bushels, or 96.62 million tons. The market expected a crop of 3.513 billion or 95.6 million tons. In the October report, the forecast was 3.550 billion bushels or 96.62 million tons. For 2018/19, the forecast was maintained at 4.428 billion or 120.5 million tons.

Final stocks in 2019/20 are projected at 475 million bushels, equivalent to 12.93 million tons, while the market was betting on around 11.68 million. In the previous report, the forecast was 460 million bushels or 12.52 million tons.

The forecast for US exports remained at 1.775 billion bushels (48.31 million tons). Crush is projected at 2.125 billion bushels (57.29 million tons), against 2.12 billion (57.69 million tons) in the previous report.

Regarding the global picture, the USDA projected the world soybean crop of 2019/20 at 336.6 million tons. In the previous report the forecast was 339 million.

Final stocks are estimated at 95.4 million tons. The market was expecting final stocks of 95 million tons. In October the forecast was 95.2 million.

The USDA projects the US crop at 96.6 million tons, unchanged from October, as already commented. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 123 million tons. Argentina is expected to produce 53 million tons.

Production in 2018/19 had its projection indicated at 358.21 million tons. Final stocks were reduced from 109.9 to 109.7 million tons. The market was betting on 110.3 million tons.

The Brazilian crop was maintained at 117 million tons, while Argentine production was estimated at 55.3 million tons.

The estimate for Chinese imports in 2019/20 was maintained at 85 million tons. In the previous year, the number was 82.54 million tons.