Porto Alegre, September 14, 2020 – The USDA’s September supply and demand report, released last Friday (13), focused the market’s attention. The report was very much expected due to the trend of negative adjustments in the U.S. production and stocks in the face of climatic problems registered in the U.S. growing belt in August and early September. Although the adjustment in production was not as great as market players expected, it was still considered very relevant, which maintained the bullish tone of the report.
USDA indicated that the U.S. soybean crop must hit 4.313 billion bushels in 2020/21, or 117.4 million tons, below the previous estimate of 4.425 billion or 120.43 million. The market was betting on a crop of 4.286 billion or 116.64 million tons.
Final stocks are estimated at 460 million bushels or 12.52 million tons. The market was betting on carryover stocks of 461 million or 12.55 million tons. In the previous report, stocks were projected at 610 million bushels – 16.6 million tons.
USDA indicated the crush at 2.180 billion bushels (58.79 million tons) and exports of 2.125 billion bushels (57.83 million tons), repeating the August estimates.
The 2019/20 production remains estimated at 3.552 billion bushels (96.67 million tons). Final stocks in 2019/20 were reduced to 575 million bushels (15.65 million tons), below the expectations of 605 million (16.47 million tons). In the previous report, the figure was 610 million bushels (16.60 million tons).
As for the world scenario, USDA projected a world soybean crop in 2020/21 of 369.74 million tons. In August, the number was 370.4 million tons.
Final stocks are estimated at 93.59 million tons. The market expected final stocks of 93.2 million tons. In August, the forecast was 95.36 million tons.
USDA projects the U.S. crop at 117.38 million tons, as already mentioned. For Brazil, the forecast is for a production of 133 million tons, up 2 million from the August figure. Argentina is expected to produce 53.5 million tons. The estimate for Chinese imports in 2020/21 is 99 million tons, repeating the August figure.
For 2019/20, USDA indicated a crop of 337.3 million tons. Final stocks are projected at 96.01 million tons, while the market was betting on 95.6 million. Both the Brazilian and Argentine crops had their estimate maintained respectively at 126 and 49.7 million tons. Chinese imports are projected at 98 million tons, the same number as in the previous report.
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