Porto Alegre, September 23, 2020 – Chicken will be essential to maintaining the food security of the Brazilian population, offering affordable high-quality protein for classes C, D and E. The trend is that shipments will also evolve in 2021, considering the recovery process that is consolidating relevant commercial partners, such as the Middle East, European Union and Japan. China remains relevant, but the trend is for the Asian giant to expand its chicken production in 2021, repeating the 2020 strategy, aiming at diversifying the consumption matrix of its population.
Under such conditions, the expectation is that Brazil will export around 4.35 million tons of chicken next year, registering the best flow of shipments in history. It is important to highlight that 2020 has already been very positive, but the result of Brazilian shipments is hindered by the lower flow of purchases by the aforementioned countries. In the current year, exports must hit approximately 4.2 million tons.
For production, the expectation is for stronger growth, starting with the housing of broiler chicks, which must advance 3.86% in comparison with the current year. In 2021 around 6.98 billion head must be housed, against 6.72 billion head in 2020. This must mean the growth of 3.84% in production, which tends to reach 14.72 million tons, against 14.18 million tons estimated for the current year.
Therefore, 2021 will be guided by the greatest domestic availability of chicken in history, with over 10 million tons, an increase of 4% in relation to 2020. This advance does not necessarily represent a decline in prices since domestic demand will turn to chicken as the main consumption option. This movement is classic and part of the basic consumption pattern in times of strong price highs in competing products. The flexibility of chicken farming is an important aspect that needs to be considered to correct the path if some element of demand changes abruptly.