Porto Alegre, December 21, 2020 – The latest update on Brazil’s agricultural GPV for sugarcane in 2020, with values calculated for the month of November this year, points to BRL 71.40 billion, down 1.46% from BRL 72.46 billion in 2019. This level of decrease in the annual comparison of November is more intense than that observed in the immediately previous month, when projections for the sugarcane GPV indicated an annual decrease of 1.06% in 2020 from 2019.
Despite the larger fall in the annual comparison, the scenario is still of growth in the margin. Between October and November, the cane GPV increased by 2.22%, advancing BRL 1.15 billion, against 3.27% in the margin in the previous month. In the meantime, on a similar path, the total GPV of crops grew by 4.66%, or BRL 26.69 billion, as well as the total GPV of the agricultural sector as a whole, with 4.38% in the margin, or BRL 37.18 billion. The growth in the agribusiness GPV is directly related to the growth in the grain crop. The second survey of the 2020/21 grain crop, released by Conab, points to an estimated production of 268.9 million tons of food, which accounts for 11.9 million tons or 4.6% more than the 2019/20 season. Soybean production must reach 135 million tons. The planting area is forecast at 67.1 million hectares.
For 2021, the total projected GPV of agribusiness is BRL 1.025 trillion, up 15.75% from this year’s BRL 885.77 billion. Soybeans must have a GPV of BRL 328.60 billion, against BRL 237.74 billion this year. The cane GPV for 2021 is currently at BRL 69.27 billion and accounts for 9.74% of the total value of crops estimated at BRL 707.72 billion, down 12.46% from the previous month.
Even with the increase in sugarcane GPV, by BRL 1.55 billion, the GPV of crops grew BRL 26.69 billion between October and November, being the origin of the loss of the sugarcane share even with the increase in the same and the GPV itself. As a way of comparison, soybeans, with an estimated GPV of BRL 328.60 billion in 2021, tend to represent 46.43% of the total GPV of crops, above the 38.18% of the previous month, while corn, with BRL 112.79 billion, must account for 15.94%, in line with the share of 15.21% observed in the previous month. Coffee, with a GPV of BRL 32.07 billion, must account for 4.53% of the total GPV of crops, below the level of 5.83% seen last month.
Looking only at the total GPV of crops in 2021, at BRL 707.72 billion, we can see an increase of 18.16% over the previous year, which hits BRL 598.96 billion. As for the total GPV of agribusiness, which includes crops and animal agriculture, we can see the amount of BRL 1.025 trillion, up 15.75% from BRL 885.77 billion in 2020. In the margin, there was a positive adjustment of BRL 176.41 billion.