Firm soybean physical market but with thin business

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     Porto Alegre, February 10, 2021 – The little physical availability of soybeans helps to keep the physical market steady. It is true that the price curve has already undergone adjustments, which drove prices away from the highs, but even so it remains at a high level. The physical market must remain linked to the CBOT and the dollar, as well as vulnerable to the crop pressure.

     Trading evolved a little last month. Growers are capitalized after good sales and can manage better the rest of the business season. They show little concern over the seasonal effect and the fact that the dollar must remain firm for a while. Thus, they focus their bullish bet on aggressive Chinese demand throughout the year. This helps to reduce supply and allows new post-harvest highs.

     The survey from SAFRAS indicates the commercialization was at 59.8% of the 20/21 crop until February 5. Sales are well accelerated, compared to 41.8% on average for the period and 49.8% at the same time last year. This performance also marks the more restrained stance of sellers.

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